One crypto newsletter to separate signal from noise, so you don’t have to
“Everything in crypto is an early stage experiment. Some earlier stage than others.” Ari Paul
Last week, BTC went off to a gradual slide with on-chain metrics starting to cool off along with. While there has been some weekend fun to the upside, but markets remain choppy for this now. At least for this week, before we go into quarterly options expiry end of Sept.
A bit further out, Q4 could be another good quarter for crypto community and a bullish BTC scenario developing for October. Here is why:
- TradeFi Macro: Powell meeting this week should be a non event. Wait for next FED meeting around 2nd/3rd Nov for any serious tapering news. There is very little that FED can do, except if 10 Year bonds continue to climb (back again to 1.4%)
- Funding & Exchanges: Negative funding in most exchanges persists and that is when large traders start to build positions. We sometimes forget that when BTC was around 45/50K last time in April, funding rates were absurd. That was toppish, not today, not yet. Exchange holdings are also dropping for both BTC and ETH, especially ETH which is again very bullish and indicates that strong hands, smart money and institutions are accumulating to get ready for a bullish Q4.
- Technicals: Strong support at 44k, resistance at 50/51K. Beyond that there is pure vacuum till 64k ATH. At the same time, any negative narratives (although none developing right now), and the market tanks to 42K, one starts to get worried. BTC has also shown technical strength by reclaiming 200d MA around 46k this weekend and holding strong.
- OnChain indicators indicating heightened accumulation by whales, SOPR & all other indicators looking good.
ETHEREUM CONTINUES TO GROW, NOW ON LAYER 1’S
ETH has been following BTC closely but renewed DeFi activity has picked up largely due to Layer 2s initiatives. Coupled with what we said above, and for the patient Hodler, it’s an opportunity to start accumulating before the ETH 2.0 narrative pushes again end of the year. However, if BTC breaks 42K, ETH and Alts shall follow – < 2900, ETH becomes risky and so does entire Alts ecosystem. Since the introduction of Ethereum’s London upgrade on August 5, more than 297,000 ETH has been burned — worth just over $1 billion. That is no small feat IMHO.
The era of the Ethereum L2 has been around for sometime, but first Starkware (DyDx), and now Arbitrum – equals speed, cost effectiveness, and available bandwidth for blockchain. Next narratives that we see building up, are Multichains (AVAX, SOL, COSMOS, Polygon etc) and the bridges for a smoother experience (AVAX, Wormhole etc.)
DeFi WEEKLY
- @avalancheavax – announces $230m private sale
- @Minterest – announces $6.5m private funding
- @arbitrum – TVL tops $2.5 billion
This week’s best-performing DeFi tokens:
- REN (+31.6%)
- OHM (+30.4%)
- CRV (+30.2%)
- SUSHI (+20.4%)
- DYDX (+15.7%)
NFT, GAMING, METAVERSE WEEKLY
- @BoredApeYC – Gold #8135 bought for 550Ξ by @jakeudell
- @EmblemVault – 3x ‘Nakamoto’ RAREPEPEs bought for 419Ξ total
- @opensea – released their mobile app and had an insiders front running scandal
- @cryptoPunks floor recovers strongly above 100Ξ
- $SUSHI hits $15 ahead of @SHOYU_NFT marketplace launch in Oct.
TOP 5 READS: BEST OF THE BEST THIS WEEK
- Solana Outage Likely Caused by Bots Pursuing an Initial DEX Offering
- A Deep Dive into SushiSwap
- Certified Rare by Arthur Hayes
- Arbitrum Ecosystem – Everything you wanted to know
- Punk Comics – The Ultimate Guide
FOLLOW THE SMART MONEY
- Audius, a blockchain-based music streaming platform with over six million monthly users raised $5 million.
- Avalanche, the proof-of-stake blockchain promising the industry’s fastest smart contracts, raised $230 million in a token sale to institutional investors.
- Immutable, creator of the NFT-focused Ethereum Layer 2 protocol Immutable X, raised $60 million in a new funding round.